Labour conference: a house of many hopes
From the outside, you might expect the Labour conference to be a grim affair. After a little over a year in government, the party trails Reform UK by an average of 11 points. One striking MRP poll suggested Labour would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats if an election were held today.
But, of course, there is no election today. Keir Starmer doesn't have to face the voters until 15 August 2029. That deadline is far enough away to leave the party imagining alternative futures.
Farage, Burnham and the ghosts of struggle
At least two unexpected allies have given Starmer breathing space.
- Nigel Farage has become a clarifying enemy. Reform's deportation plan was quickly denounced as "racist" by Labour ministers, allowing the leadership to move beyond lists of statistics and policies into what Starmer calls "a battle for the soul of the country." Labour, a party steeped in the language of struggle – think Hugh Gaitskell's famous pledge to "fight, and fight, and fight again" – has rediscovered the rhetoric it craves.
- Andy Burnham, meanwhile, played the role of challenger-in-waiting before swiftly folding. Having admitted MPs invited him to challenge Starmer, the Manchester mayor was soon declaring that the Prime Minister remains Labour's best bet. As one wag at conference put it: "the struggle is over and he loves Big Brother."
Factions on parade
If there is a real reason for cheer, it lies in the kaleidoscope of ambition. Unlike the Blair years, when Gordon Brown's dominance left little space for rivals, today every wing of Labour imagines its champion inheriting the crown.
- Starmer's allies insist re-election is possible if the government delivers on living standards, the NHS and borders, then rallies voters against Farage – "a rather unpopular populist."
- Soft Left critics mutter that "the fundamentals remain the same": no PM with Starmer's ratings has ever bounced back. Next May's contests in Scotland, Wales and London loom as a brutal stress test.
Blue Labour enters the frame
One of the most intriguing developments comes from Blue Labour, the communitarian wing of the party first shaped by Maurice Glasman. Its creed is economically left but culturally rooted: family, work, community, scepticism of globalisation, and pride in identity.
At this year's conference, Blue Labour's hopes are pinned on Shabana Mahmood, the new Home Secretary. She embodies the strand's belief that Labour must reconnect with working-class voters by grounding policy in everyday concerns, rather than abstract technocracy. Her political antennae are widely respected across factions, making her a rare figure who can speak both to Starmer loyalists and critics.
Other runners and riders
The succession betting market is crowded:
- Blairites still fancy Wes Streeting or Bridget Phillipson, the latter boosted by a spirited deputy leadership campaign.
- Labourist traditionalists keep faith with Angela Rayner, the ex-deputy PM enjoying warm mentions from the platform.
- Rachel Reeves, after a strong conference speech, is back in the mix. One fixer's verdict summed up the current mood: "Buy shares in Rachel, sell in Andy."
The enduring currency of hope
For now, there is no pre-eminent successor. Instead, the party lives in a state of suspended competition, each camp convinced the future could be theirs. In that sense, Labour has rediscovered politics' most valuable commodity: hope.
And in Liverpool, at least, hope comes in many colours – red, pink, purple, and now, perhaps more than ever, blue.
