Hope Is In The Air Despite Smacking Of Failure In Opinion Polls

Labour conference: a house of many hopes

From the outside, you might expect the Labour conference to be a grim affair. After a little over a year in government, the party trails Reform UK by an average of 11 points. One striking MRP poll suggested Labour would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats if an election were held today.

But, of course, there is no election today. Keir Starmer doesn't have to face the voters until 15 August 2029. That deadline is far enough away to leave the party imagining alternative futures.

Farage, Burnham and the ghosts of struggle

At least two unexpected allies have given Starmer breathing space.

• Nigel Farage has become a clarifying enemy. Reform's deportation plan was quickly denounced as "racist" by Labour ministers, allowing the leadership to move beyond lists of statistics and policies into what Starmer calls "a battle for the soul of the country." Labour, a party steeped in the language of struggle – think Hugh Gaitskell's famous pledge to "fight, and fight, and fight again" – has rediscovered the rhetoric it craves.
• Andy Burnham, meanwhile, played the role of challenger-in-waiting before swiftly folding. Having admitted MPs invited him to challenge Starmer, the Manchester mayor was soon declaring that the Prime Minister remains Labour's best bet. As one wag at conference put it: "the struggle is over and he loves Big Brother."

Factions on parade

If there is a real reason for cheer, it lies in the kaleidoscope of ambition. Unlike the Blair years, when Gordon Brown's dominance left little space for rivals, today every wing of Labour imagines its champion inheriting the crown.

• Starmer's allies insist re-election is possible if the government delivers on living standards, the NHS and borders, then rallies voters against Farage – "a rather unpopular populist."
• Soft Left critics mutter that "the fundamentals remain the same": no PM with Starmer's ratings has ever bounced back. Next May's contests in Scotland, Wales and London loom as a brutal stress test.

Blue Labour enters the frame

One of the most intriguing developments comes from Blue Labour, the communitarian wing of the party first shaped by Maurice Glasman. Its creed is economically left but culturally rooted: family, work, community, scepticism of globalisation, and pride in identity.

At this year's conference, Blue Labour's hopes are pinned on Shabana Mahmood, the new Home Secretary. She embodies the strand's belief that Labour must reconnect with working-class voters by grounding policy in everyday concerns, rather than abstract technocracy. Her political antennae are widely respected across factions, making her a rare figure who can speak both to Starmer loyalists and critics.

Other runners and riders

The succession betting market is crowded:

• Blairites still fancy Wes Streeting or Bridget Phillipson, the latter boosted by a spirited deputy leadership campaign.
• Labourist traditionalists keep faith with Angela Rayner, the ex-deputy PM enjoying warm mentions from the platform.
• Rachel Reeves, after a strong conference speech, is back in the mix. One fixer's verdict summed up the current mood: "Buy shares in Rachel, sell in Andy."

The enduring currency of hope

For now, there is no pre-eminent successor. Instead, the party lives in a state of suspended competition, each camp convinced the future could be theirs. In that sense, Labour has rediscovered politics' most valuable commodity: hope.

And in Liverpool, at least, hope comes in many colours – red, pink, purple, and now, perhaps more than ever, blue.

Labour’s Two-Pronged Attack On Unemployment

Prong #1: Reeves Targets Youth Unemployment With 'Guarantee'

Rachel Reeves used her Labour conference speech in Liverpool to launch a "youth guarantee" – a promise that no young person will be left without work, training, or education.

The plan means anyone under 25 on Universal Credit for 18 months without being in work or training will be offered:

• A paid job placement

• An apprenticeship

• Or a college place

But there's a catch: refuse without good reason and you lose your benefits.

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The Chancellor's Words

"I believe in a Britain founded on contribution – where we do our duty for each other, and where hard work is matched by fair reward."

"Every young person will be guaranteed either a place in a college, an apprenticeship, or one-to-one support to find a job. But more than that, our guarantee will ensure that any young person out of work for 18 months will be given a paid work placement. Real work, practical experience, and new skills."

"We won't leave a generation of young people to languish without prospects – denied the dignity, the security and the ladders of opportunity that good work provides."

Reeves vowed to deliver "nothing less than the abolition of long-term youth unemployment", echoing New Labour's New Deal from the 1990s.

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The Wider Debate

• Reeves hinted at possible wealth taxes on the super-rich and corporations, with pressure mounting inside Labour to raise revenue beyond the current pledge of no rises in income tax, VAT, or employee NI.

• She framed her economic approach around the principle of "contribution", a theme think tank Labour Together recently urged the party to champion.

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Allies Back the Plan

Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden said:

"Almost a million young people are not in education, employment or training. We will not stand by while a generation is consigned to benefits almost before they've begun. The youth guarantee is how we will offer every young person a chance to get up and get on."

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The Political Context

• One in eight 16–24 year-olds are currently not in education, employment or training – up nearly a third in four years under the Conservatives.

• Labour is pitching this as part of its core mission to "get Britain working" and offer targeted help to young people most at risk of being left behind.

Prong #2: Meanwhile, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood used the same conference to trail a tougher immigration system, promising high English standards, clean records, and community service as requirements for indefinite leave to remain.

And outside the Labour hall? Nigel Farage is calling for an outright abolition of indefinite leave to remain – a move Keir Starmer branded "racist and immoral."

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VOTES

Winners:

• Young people stuck on UC without options — a guaranteed chance to work, study, or train.

• Employers and colleges, who gain access to a pipeline of subsidised placements.

Losers:

• Benefit claimants who refuse placements risk sanctions.

• Reeves' Treasury, which faces pressure to fund jobs without raising headline taxes.

Swing Voters' View:

The public may back the principle of "work not welfare," but sceptics will ask: are these real jobs with prospects, or just stopgaps to massage unemployment stats?

Leaking Labour Under Fire

The £740,000 "Admin Error" That Won't Go Away

The Scandal That Won't Stay Buried

A leaked email has reignited a row that Labour thought it had buried. Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer's chief of staff and the architect of Labour's election landslide, is back under fire.

The email, from Gerald Shamash — a veteran Labour lawyer — shows that McSweeney was advised in 2021 to explain away £739,492 in undeclared donations to his think-tank Labour Together as an "admin error."

This revelation cuts against the think-tank's long-standing claim that it was merely guilty of "human error and administrative oversight." It also drags the issue into today's headlines, at precisely the moment when Labour is under pressure for sliding poll ratings.

What the Lawyer Actually Said

• Shamash warned McSweeney against sticking to his claim that the Electoral Commission had told him he didn't need to declare donations.
• No evidence existed to support such a conversation.
• Instead, Shamash suggested: better to admit "admin error" and push the Commission towards a penalty that would "minimise publicity."

In his words: "It may be better if Labour Together cannot deal substantively with questions I pose, then perhaps best to simply base our case… as admin error."

The Timeline of Trouble

• 2017: McSweeney takes over Labour Together. The Electoral Commission explicitly tells him to declare donations within 30 days.
• 2018–2020: McSweeney largely stops declaring donations. Only one is disclosed — £12,500 from Trevor Chinn.
• July 2020: McSweeney leaves to work for Starmer.
• 2021: His replacement discovers nearly three years of undeclared donations worth £739,000 and rushes to declare them late.
• September 2021: Labour Together is fined £14,250 for over 20 breaches of electoral law.

Tory Attack Lines

Conservatives have wasted no time weaponising the email. Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake:

"The evidence is clear – Morgan McSweeney has been caught red-handed hiding hundreds of thousands of pounds which helped install Keir Starmer as Labour leader. This latest scandal at the very heart of government is incredibly serious – and potentially criminal."

Hollinrake accused Starmer of "poor judgment" for backing McSweeney, linking it to the "Mandelson-Epstein scandal" and demanding a full Electoral Commission and police investigation.

Why This Matters Politically

• McSweeney isn't just any adviser; he is Starmer's strategist-in-chief, the man who built the election machine. Any scandal around him bleeds into questions about Starmer's own judgment.
• Labour MPs are already restless over flatlining polls and the controversial idea of sending Peter Mandelson to Washington. This adds fuel to the fire.
• The Conservatives now have a simple line: if Labour's clean-government pitch is real, why is Starmer standing by a chief of staff tied to nearly three-quarters of a million in "hidden" donations?

The Big Question

Was it really an "admin error" — or a calculated risk that backfired?

With the paper trail now public, and the lawyer's own email contradicting Labour Together's claims of openness, the line between oversight and cover-up is blurrier than ever.

One thing is certain: the scandal Labour thought it had consigned to 2021 has returned at the worst possible time.