Politics never really breaks up for Christmas — it just puts on a jumper and pours a stronger drink. And this year's festive polling delivers a familiar message wrapped in new paper: volatility on the Right, paralysis on the Left, and a country itching for a say.
Kemi Badenoch will be toasting a modest Christmas bounce. The Conservatives are up to 22 per cent, narrowing the gap with Nigel Farage's Reform UK to just three points. A month ago, that gap was seven. Momentum, it seems, is a fragile thing.
The numbers come from polling by Lord Ashcroft, and they underline a febrile truth: the Right is split, and division comes at a price. Reform may still lead on 25 per cent, but Farage's route to Downing Street now looks less like a march and more like a negotiation — one that would almost certainly involve the Conservatives.
Badenoch, meanwhile, is quietly doing what opposition leaders are supposed to do: landing blows at the despatch box and sketching out policy with sharper edges. Abolishing stamp duty. Scrapping the 2030 petrol and diesel ban. Clear dividing lines — and, crucially, ones that appear to be cutting through.
Reform's problem is a different one. Strip away the charisma and the pub appeal, and voters remain unconvinced there's a governing machine underneath. Asked whether Farage has enough talent around him to form an administration, just 17 per cent said yes. Sixty per cent said no. Personality politics has limits.
If the Right is divided, the Left is drifting. Labour sits in fourth place, a point behind the Greens. That leaves Keir Starmer facing an uncomfortable reality: power, if it comes again, would likely require a coalition stitched together out of necessity rather than enthusiasm. Combined, Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems command 47 per cent — exactly the same as the combined Conservative–Reform vote. Unity, not popularity, is now the decisive factor.
Voters themselves are restless. Thirty-nine per cent want an election next year. Only 26 per cent are content to wait until 2029. Labour voters, understandably, prefer delay — half want the full term — but even among them there's quiet doubt about whether a leadership reset would really change the weather.
And then there's Christmas — where Farage still dominates. Most likely to hide in the pub. To burn the lunch. To argue over the turkey. To embarrass himself at the office party. Politics as personality, again. Starmer, by contrast, is pegged as the man most likely to make a boring speech — or sneak off to do some work. Badenoch? Clearing up after lunch. And, apparently, the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe.
But beneath the tinsel sits a harder truth. Thirty-eight per cent of voters say they'll have less money for presents this year. Just 11 per cent expect to spend more. Festive polling may be light-hearted, but the economic backdrop is not.
Christmas may bring a bounce. January will bring the reckoning.
