Now English Club

Honey, I Just Shrank The Deficit

The Honeymoon's Over" – Starmer and Reeves Face the Music

It's been barely six months since the Labour landslide, but the gloss seems to be coming off the Downing Street double act faster than Reeves can say "fiscal responsibility." According to new polling by Opinium, more than half the country think both Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves should pack their bags and call it a day.

The Poll: Red Faces, Red Numbers

Between November 5 and 7, Opinium asked 2,050 UK adults whether Starmer and Reeves should stay or go. The results were brutal.

56% said the Prime Minister should resign.
Just 26% want him to stay.
19% aren't sure — perhaps waiting for the next U-turn.

Even among those who voted Labour in 2024, a third (33%) want Starmer gone. The supposed safe pair of hands is losing his grip.

Reeves fares even worse. 57% want her to resign, only 19% want her to remain, and nearly a quarter have no opinion — which, frankly, might be the kindest option. Among Labour's own voters, just 42% back her to stay on, with 38% saying she should follow the Prime Minister out the door.

The Fallout: Taxing Times

The timing couldn't be worse for Labour's front bench. Reeves' pre-budget speech — notable for what she didn't say — appears to have set off alarm bells. Her repeated refusals to rule out tax rises left commentators wondering whether the "no new taxes" promise from the manifesto was already heading for the shredder.

It's a reminder of the old political rule: the electorate will forgive many things, but not feeling misled. Especially not on money.

The Verdict

When your approval ratings are sinking faster than the pound after a mini-budget, you've got a problem. For now, Starmer and Reeves are trying to keep calm and carry on — but the public seems to think they've already overstayed their welcome.

Labour wanted stability. What they've got instead is déjà vu: a government that promised change, now looking nervously at the polls, and a Chancellor whose silence on tax is speaking volumes.

In Westminster terms, that's the sound of knives being sharpened — again.

Pensioner Pinch - Reeves Reloads

"Those with the broadest shoulders should pay their fair share," said Rachel Reeves — before quietly aiming for the shoulders of pensioners across Britain.

In what's shaping up to be the most creative reinterpretation of a manifesto promise since "no income tax rise" mysteriously became "well, technically…", Labour is reportedly planning a 2p income tax hike in the upcoming Budget — the first in fifty years.

🧮 The Great Balancing Act

For workers, the pain is sugar-coated: a 2p cut in National Insurance means most employees won't notice much difference in their take-home pay. But for the country's nine million pensioners — who don't pay NI — the Treasury's balancing act looks more like a banana skin.

Basic-rate workers: unaffected.
High earners (£100,000): about £1,000 worse off.
Additional-rate pensioners (£125,140+): an eye-watering £2,502.80 extra tax a year.

"Broad shoulders," indeed — though the people bearing them are increasingly stooped under the weight of rising tax bands and heating bills.

🧓 Silver Squeeze, Golden Promises

This is the same government that promised not to raise income tax, VAT or NI — but now appears ready to tick one of those boxes after all. Reeves has told the OBR to expect "major measures" to plug a £ black-hole in public finances after higher borrowing costs and lower productivity forecasts.

Add in the move to drag unspent pensions into inheritance tax from 2027 — potentially clawing back up to 67% of leftover savings — and you have the makings of a pensioner pincer movement.

Then there's the winter fuel payment U-turn. Yes, technically everyone over state pension age gets it again — £200 for under-80s, £300 for over-80s — but anyone earning over £35,000 will hand it straight back via tax. The Treasury calls that "targeted support." Most people would call it a loan with seasonal interest.

🧠 Think Tank Theatrics

Even Labour's favourite think-tank, the Fabian Society, is getting in on the act, calling the current 25% tax-free lump sum "too generous" and urging Reeves to slash it to £100,000. Because, apparently, saving responsibly is now "systemically unfair."

A Treasury spokesperson, of course, refused to confirm anything:

"We do not comment on speculation around changes to tax outside of fiscal events."

Translation: We're absolutely thinking about it.

Reform support triples

Support for Reform UK among British Indians has more than tripled since the last election, according to new polling from the 1928 Institute, a group of Oxford-based academics studying the British Indian diaspora. Once considered firmly within Labour's orbit, this community — the UK's largest minority group — appears to be shifting politically in ways that challenge long-held assumptions.

A Growing but Uneven Surge

The research shows Reform's backing within the British Indian community has jumped from 4% to 13% in the past year — a significant increase, even if still below the party's national polling average. The timing of the findings, released around Diwali, underscores how Britain's ethnic minorities are increasingly being recognised as vital electoral battlegrounds.

"British Indian support for Reform is significantly lower than that of the general UK population," the report notes. "However, there is a strong upwards trend in support."

From Labour Loyalty to Political Fluidity

Historically, British Indians — making up around 3% of the population — leaned heavily towards Labour, especially during the 1960s and 1970s, when the party was seen as more welcoming to immigrants. But as second- and third-generation families have prospered and diversified, political identities have evolved.

In the 2024 election, 48% of British Indians backed Labour, compared with 21% for the Conservatives and 4% for Reform. Today, Labour's share has dropped to 35%, the Conservatives' to 18%, and the Greens have also climbed to 13%, particularly among younger voters.

New Priorities, New Politics

The data suggests the community's policy priorities are changing too. While education remains the top concern, the economy has overtaken health as the second most important issue. Crime now ranks third, displacing the environment. Meanwhile, equalities and human rights, once fifth on the list, have fallen to seventh — a telling indicator of shifting political focus.

These changes may help explain the community's increasing openness to Reform's populist messaging on economics, crime, and national identity.

Cultural and Ideological Undercurrents

Analysts note that social conservatism and Hindu nationalism have played a role in nudging some Indian voters rightward. A 2021 Carnegie Endowment report highlighted the lingering backlash to Labour's stance on Kashmir under Jeremy Corbyn, which alienated many Hindu voters.

For Nigel Farage, this presents both an opportunity and a contradiction. His rhetoric has oscillated between admiration for Indian and Australian immigrants and criticism of trade deals that make it easier for workers from India to enter the UK. Yet Reform's populist tone and emphasis on self-reliance seem to resonate with a segment of British Indian voters who see themselves as economically aspirational but politically underrepresented.

What Comes Next

As Nikita Ved, one of the report's authors, put it:

"Reform UK's rise is disrupting traditional voting patterns within the British Indian community. As economic and social frustrations deepen, both major parties may face growing pressure to engage more directly with a community whose political loyalties can no longer be taken for granted."

With Labour losing its once-automatic hold and the Conservatives collapsing under the weight of recent scandals, the rise of Reform among British Indians is less about Farage's charisma and more about a search for political relevance.

For a community long seen as a loyal bloc, this shift signals something bigger: British Indians are no longer predictable voters — they're pragmatic ones.

Ghostly Goings-On @ Cons Conference?

🎩 "The Kemi Conundrum: Is the Conservative Party's 'Avenging Angel' About to Be Exorcised?"

The conference season may have ended, but the séance has only just begun. As the Tories packed up their banners in Manchester, one question lingered among the empty champagne flutes: can Kemi Badenoch actually survive as leader?

Tatler's insider dispatch painted a scene somewhere between The Thick of It and The Walking Dead: Badenoch striding onstage in off-white body-con and stilettos — part "avenging angel," part "still alive, just about." Her gag of the week ("I'm an engineer, not an arsonist") raised enough polite chuckles to keep the conference floor from flatlining.

But amid the fizz and fashion, there were bigger bangs than her outfit. The big announcement — abolishing stamp duty — came with the usual Tory caveats ("second homes need not apply"). Then came the amyl-nitrite moment: £47 billion in welfare cuts, met with cheers that suggested the ghost of Thatcher had briefly returned for one last conga.

Still, the real drama is backstage. With Badenoch's one-year leadership anniversary approaching in November, her party's plotting calendar is lighting up like a Christmas tree. That's the first legal moment for MPs to start sending those infamous "letters" to the party chair — the modern equivalent of being handed a note from Thomas Cromwell.

And if history teaches us anything, it's that Conservatives do love a coup… almost as much as they love a cocktail.

🥂

Conference After Hours: The Real Tory Tribes

The Spectator party was the main watering hole (sans the water for once). Michael Gove, now abstaining from booze but not from intrigue, hosted proceedings in a hangar-sized room. Despite their rocky "frenemy" history, Gove and Badenoch are now awkwardly reunited by their shared fear of Reform UK — and by publisher Paul Marshall's Reform flirtations.

Meanwhile, James Cleverly has checked out of the leadership hotel altogether, eyeing a tilt at London mayor instead. He was last seen pulling his own pint before breakfast and claiming, "It's like rugby," which might also explain his policy strategy.

Mel Stride, Kemi's numbers man and shadow chancellor, is steering the economic message and an unexpected social-media hit list ("Ten things you didn't know about Mel Stride" — including that he's written an unpublished novel and once lived on a boat). The Tories love a man with hidden depths, preferably offshore.

Priti Patel sparkled at the GB News bash, mixing pearls with politics before joining Kemi in a late-night rendition of Sweet Caroline. Nothing says fiscal responsibility like a Mojito singalong.

Penny Mordaunt, still swashbuckling her way through myth and memoir, calls herself a "national treasure." She's backing Kemi's tough talk on the ECHR and climate rollbacks — but history reminds us how Portillo's comeback tour ended (with train documentaries).

⚔️

Kemi's Pretenders-in-Waiting

Robert Jenrick — accompanied by his formidable wife, Michal Berkner — seems to be warming up in the wings with a spare judges' wig and a few Farage-friendly phrases. If Kemi stumbles, the Jenrick Express will be leaving Platform Brexit shortly.

Riding shotgun is Katie Lam, the hyper-ambitious Kent MP whose CV reads like the Von Trapp family meets Goldman Sachs. Former musical writer, banker, Boris-era adviser and PR exec — she's the prototype for the next-gen Tory: equal parts competence and chaos. Her only PR problem? Being branded "a Dom Cummings creation," which these days is the political equivalent of having "MySpace influencer" on your résumé.

And just when you thought it couldn't get weirder, Chesney Hawkes turned up. The One and Only singer closed the conference with Tory-themed karaoke — including a rewrite of The Killers' "Human" as "Are We Tory?" Sadly, even he didn't dare cover Making Plans for Nigel.

🪞

Verdict: Mirror, Mirror on the Party Wall…

Badenoch's fans see her as the iron-fisted moderniser who can take the fight to Labour and Reform. Her critics think she's already running on borrowed time — a leader dressed for the resurrection but surrounded by resurrectionists.

As one insider put it:

"The party isn't dead. It just hasn't realised it's a ghost yet."

Whether the Kemi era becomes a second coming or a zombie shuffle now depends on how many letters land on that fateful desk in November.

Until then, the Tories will do what they do best: plot, party, and pretend it's all under control.

🗞️ Votes & Quotes — because politics shouldn't just be watched; it should be toasted, mocked, and occasionally exorcised.

Protesting Is UnBritish Says Starmer

"Un-British Protests": Starmer Tells Students to Shun October 7 Rallies

Sir Keir Starmer has told students to stay away from demonstrations marking the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks, branding them "un-British" and a "total loss of empathy and humanity".

Quoted by The Times, the prime minister warned that parts of Britain had grown "indifferent to antisemitism", which he called "a profound threat to our nation and its values." He said those who celebrate or excuse violence against Jews "show a total lack of humanity" and urged police to use the "full force of the law" against anyone calling for harm.

"Let me just spell that out for a moment," Starmer wrote. "People on our streets calling for the murder of Jewish people they have never even met, for something they are not responsible for. A total loss of empathy and humanity — not in some faraway land but right here in the heart of our country.

"And today, on the anniversary of the atrocities of October 7, students are once again planning protests. This is not who we are as a country. It's un-British to have so little respect for others."

More than a dozen university protests are planned across the UK — including London, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Bristol — to mark two years since the Hamas attacks that killed 1,200 civilians and saw 251 taken hostage.

Many events are being held under banners such as "honour our martyrs" and "two years of resistance". At Glasgow University, a five-hour "Justice for Palestine" event will "honour our resistance"; while Goldsmiths and Queen Mary University are advertising "nights of remembrance and resistance".

The protests come just days after two Jewish men were killed outside a Manchester synagogue in what police are treating as a terror attack.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, added that medical regulators were "completely failing to protect Jewish patients", saying the General Medical Council had allowed doctors making antisemitic remarks to avoid punishment. He promised an overhaul of the body to "restore public trust".

Starmer concluded his piece with a plea for empathy and solidarity, warning that "many Jewish schoolchildren now feel compelled to hide their uniforms", and that in some primary schools "children are practising bomb drills".

"We must always stand ready to fight antisemitism," he wrote. "Because when hatred is normalised, humanity itself is diminished."

Conservatives Cast Their Spelling Magic!

"When Labour negotiates, Britian loses."

— except this time, it was the Conservatives who lost… their spellchecker.

THE PARTY THAT COULDN'T SPELL "BRITAIN" RIGHT

It was meant to be a conference treat — chocolate bars stamped with Kemi Badenoch's rallying cry. Instead, the Tory handouts became a meme.

"Britian loses," read the wrappers — a Freudian slip, if ever there was one, at a Manchester gathering already described as "the quietest in years."

A Conservative source blamed a "printing error." Others called it "the most accurate Tory message in years."

Corporate sponsors were thin on the ground, stalls stood empty, and even anti-Brexit protester Steve Bray didn't bother showing up. The silence spoke volumes about a party running out of both money and momentum.

THE BADENOCH BLUES

Kemi Badenoch's leadership woes deepened as a YouGov poll for Sky News revealed that half of Conservative members don't want her to lead them into the next election.

46% said she should stay.
50% said she should go.

It's hard to inspire unity when your own chocolate bars can't agree on the country's name.

And if the polls are right, she'll be spelling "opposition" soon enough: a separate YouGov seat-by-seat projection puts the Tories on just 45 MPs, behind Reform UK, Labour, and even the Liberal Democrats.

THE FISCAL FANTASY SEQUEL

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride tried to steady the ship with his new plan to "restore the nation's finances" — a greatest-hits medley of old austerity tracks:

Cut welfare for those with "low-level mental health problems."
Shrink the civil service to 2016 levels (minus 133,000 jobs).
Slash foreign aid to 0.3% of GDP "to save £7bn."
End asylum hotels and restrict benefits to UK nationals.
Keep the two-child benefit cap.

Tory HQ says the package could save £47bn. Critics point out that the last time they promised to save the economy, Liz Truss wiped out £45bn overnight.

Even Stride's own record betrays him: benefits spending and civil service headcount rose when he was work and pensions secretary. As one delegate was overheard muttering, "We've seen this film before — and it still ends with the pound falling."

THE JENRICK DEFENCE

While Badenoch battled spelling errors and sagging polls, her shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick was defending comments about visiting Birmingham and "not seeing another white face."

Pressed on BBC Radio 5 Live, Jenrick said he had "no regrets" and that Britain must tackle "ghettoised communities."

Badenoch backed him up, saying his words were "factual observations" taken "out of context."

Former West Midlands mayor Andy Street disagreed bluntly: "Robert is wrong."

The optics were grim: a conference haunted by nostalgia, rhetoric about "integration," and confectionery that misspelt the nation it claimed to defend.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"When Labour negotiates, Britian loses."

— Conservative Conference Bar Wrapper, Manchester 2025

Sometimes the typo tells the truth better than the speech ever could.

Do The Right Thing?

THE RIGHT STUFF? BADENOCH UNDER PRESSURE AS ROSINDELL FLIRTS WITH FARAGE ALLIANCE

Kemi Badenoch's party conference in Manchester is off to a turbulent start — and not because of Labour hecklers. One of her own shadow ministers, Andrew Rosindell, has just handed Nigel Farage the kind of publicity Reform UK usually has to buy Facebook ads for.

In a GB News interview, the Romford MP declared that the Conservatives should "work together" with Reform, warning that his own seat would "almost certainly" fall to Farage's insurgent outfit if the right stayed divided.

"Our electoral system can't accommodate two parties that are broadly conservative," he said. "That means a divide in the vote and the calamity of another Labour government for five years — or even worse, one propped up by the Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SNP, fruit and nut, and whoever else."

That fruity flourish aside, Rosindell's message was clear: unite or die. He praised both Farage and Badenoch as "good patriots", lamenting that "everybody that's in Reform today pretty much would have been part of the Conservative Party" under Thatcher.

For a shadow foreign minister to publicly muse about joining forces with Farage was always going to cause a storm — and it did. A Liberal Democrat spokesperson immediately called for Badenoch to "sack Andrew Rosindell now if she wants to maintain any credibility", adding:

"It's no wonder so many One Nation Conservatives are abandoning their party and turning to the Liberal Democrats."

The timing couldn't be worse. Reform is now 15 points ahead of the Conservatives according to The Telegraph's tracker, with Labour and even the Lib Dems overtaking the once-dominant Tory brand. Rosindell admitted he's "worried" about losing his seat, predicting "the whole of Essex would go Reform."

Adding insult to injury, one of Badenoch's own backers, businessman Mark Gallagher, defected to Reform just as the conference opened — despite donating £2,000 to her leadership bid last year. The Tories scrambled to downplay it, insisting he'd "never actually rejoined" the party after backing the Brexit Party.

But the optics were ugly: another donor gone, another MP speaking like a Farage fan club chairman. Even former Tory minister Nadine Dorries, now proudly Reform, accused Badenoch of "jumping on the bandwagon" by promising to deport 150,000 illegal migrants a year and quit the European Convention on Human Rights — both Reform policies.

"I trust the man who has said this for decades," Dorries sneered, "not the woman who's said it for five minutes."

The Tory leadership insists it won't merge, defect, or deal — but when your MPs are openly begging for a right-wing "removals force" and your donors are removing themselves, it's hard to tell who's deporting whom.

For now, Badenoch is trying to steady the ship — but with her shadow ministers going rogue and her rivals going mainstream, the Conservative conference feels less like a relaunch and more like a reverse takeover.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

"He's a good man. He's a patriot. So is Kemi Badenoch. Why can't they talk to each other and work together?" — Andrew Rosindell, Shadow Foreign Minister, GB News Interview

VERDICT:

When a party starts fantasising about electoral pacts, it's usually admitting it can't win one.

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